Emphasis Preaching Journal
It seems miraculous that John...
Illustration
It seems miraculous that John P. Craven, in charge of submarine spy operations for the United States, could find an atomic bomb which fell from a B-52 bomber in a crash over the oceans near Spain in 1966. He relied on an algebraic formula, the theorem of subjective probability, crafted by Thomas Bayes, a mathematician born in 1760, which assigns value to peoples' hunches. Craven asked a group of submarine and salvage experts to place bets on the probability of different scenarios and factors related to the bomb's loss.
